Israel, China and the World

by Arch Bungle, re-posted from Moon of Alabama

Israel’s reliance on jets for strike missions is so hilarious because Iran’s Area Denial forced them to fire super expensive cruise missiles at standoff ranges, and you can’t do 100 jet strike packages every night lol, they’re RUINOUSLY expensive. The economic math of these strike packages is INSANE. Israel counters by launching 100 jets and like 8 tankers or whatever and fire airlaunched cruise missiles that are more expensive on their own than iranian ballistic missiles and if the iranians shoot those down thats BILLIONS of dollars down the drain. Iranian fires its own missiles and drones and, even if they all get shot down, Iran wins because interception is more expensive than the missiles. There are no gamechangers, no super secret weapons in the West, it’s just a numbers game. And here the West has two huge problems:

1. It fights very one-dimensionally owing to extreme structural underinvestment (for political/ interservice reasons!) in drones and missiles.

2. Even given that the western toolbox has only a spanner and nothing else, it lacks the production capacity to sustain a real SEAD/DEAD campaign before its weapons run out. – Malcolm Kyeyune.

Note: China’s role is discussed in #38, #51, #52, #53, below.

What has Israel achieved in the last year?

1. Israel has essentially lost territory in the north of Occupied Palestine. Hezbollah's rocket barrages over the last eleven months has driven the settler population out of the North. This is likely permanent. Israel's settler population in the Gaza envelope has also been thinned out since the 7 October attacks.

2. Moreover, current ongoing attacks from Yemen, Iraq, Iran and Lebanon are depopulating Israel.

3. The Houthi have put an unbreakable chokehold on the Red Sea and all Red Sea shipping. There is no way to break this chokehold. The USN and all other Western navies have tried for almost 12 months and failed utterly.

4. Attempts to conduct strikes on the Houthi, including massive strikes on core infrastructure in Hodeida have yielded ZERO results over a period of almost a year. The Israelis are to thank for this achievement.

5. The cementing of Hezbollah as the primary military force in Lebanon: Hezbollah's Radwan forces have proven capable of protecting Lebanon's southern borders with Palestine. All attempts by the IDF and their supporting American Special Forces to take control of this area and drive the Radwan forces back have failed.

6. The ensured survival of Hamas: Hamas in the Gaza strip persists after almost a year. For months they've demonstrated ability to strike IDF forces daily, destroying IDF ground equipment and troops. This is true, even if incremental in nature. Hamas is still able to launch rockets on the Gaza envelope. This means their rocket manufacturing facilities are still functional. Hamas has demonstrated staying power and resilience. Compared to Fatah in the West Bank, Hamas has demonstrated an ability and willingness to actualize the Palestinian desire for self determination.

7. Due to Israel's excessive response to 7 October, Fatah has been permanently sidelined. Hamas will forever be known as the true face of Palestinian resistance.

8. The validation of Hezbollah's resilience: Despite eliminating one (1) component of the Hezbollah leadership, Hezbollah has reconstituted its leadership structure. It's most senior leadership council, the Shura is still intact.

9. Despite a technically brilliant infiltration of the communications infrastructure supply chain by Israel and after a massive air strike involving rarely used bunker buster missiles, Israel has failed to dent the combat capability or even morale of Hezbollah.

10. Hezbollah has established, for the first time in history, a buffer zone cleared of Israelis within the held territory of 'Israel' (Occupied Palestine).

11. Recent and previous strikes carried out by the IRGC on Tel Aviv showed the failure of the Iron Dome and the failure of ALL Israel's air defense systems. David's Sling. Arrow. Patriot. Moreover, the air defense systems of Israel's satraps (Jordan) were also proven to fail. Further, the interception systems of the USN were proven to be inadequate.

12. This has massive implications for war-gaming a conflict between the US and Iran. It means that the US will have to consider the fact that regardless of what it may inflict on Iran, it will not be able to shield anyone and itself against a concurrent Iranian retaliation.

13. Moreover, the US must now acknowledge that Iran has the ability to destroy it's carrier groups.

14. Marine power projection is therefore no longer of any use in the Persian Gulf, Indian Ocean, Red Sea, Gulf of Oman ... It must now recalculate all it's previous attack plans.

15. The hardening of Hezbollah positions in the South of Lebanon: Despite the spectacular and tragic strikes Israel has carried out on Beirut the essential damage is limited to civilian blocks and civilian villages in the south. It appears that very little of Israel's considerable air firepower has harmed Hezbollah itself. Hezbollah not only remains lodged there but the creation of rubble and destruction has provided them future cover and shelter.

16. The net effect of these strikes has been to galvanize Hezbollah's fighters, drive Hezbollah recruitment, set world opinion firmly against Israel. The global environment for Israelis, Zionists and sadly, even non-Zionist Jews has been polluted on account of Netanyahu's actions in Beirut.

17. On the other side of the equation, the IDF has wasted substantial amounts of materiel on killing civilians and destroying civilian infrastructure. Infrastructure which has nothing to do with the threat posed by Hezbollah.

18. While the US has put its entire arsenal at Israel's disposal these materials are far from infinite and will run out soon - or become so expensive that it begins place further pressures on the U.S economy and logistics chains.

19. The US' ongoing Iraq Occupation is coming apart at the seams: Despite the US presence in Iraq, it is demonstrably unable to exert any influence on the Iraqi resistance movements there, who launch increasingly sophisticated missile and drone attacks from Iraqi territory under the noses of US garrisons.

20. In addition, the behavior of Israel has stimulated anti-US activity in Iraq and will shortly result in a violent ejection of U.S forces from that country regardless of the current puppet government's attempts to retain the U.S presence. It may take years to complete but the ejection of American forces from Iraq is all but assured now that the Hashdi have demonstrated the ability to use substantial lethal force.

21. The Syrian occupation is coming apart at the seams: Strikes against U.S bases in Syria have become a weekly occurrence now. The resistance movements in Syria have shown that they have the capability to put American bases under constant pressure. The U.S will shortly lose it's comfortable perch on the Conoco oil fields in Syria and with it, control of the spigot to the various anti-government militant movements in the region ... and with that, control of Syria. Turkey and Russia have become confident to bomb ISIS and Kurdish proxies in Syria.

22. In short, Israel's needless bloodlust has imperiled the US' ongoing occupation of the entire Middle East.

23. Israel has destabilized Jordan. Iran has pushed Jordan (and others) into showing their cards at the middle eastern poker table. The government of Jordan has been exposed as a completely controlled satrap of Israel. Its national interests are completely subordinate to Israel and the USA above and beyond the interests of Jordanian people.

24. This begins the countdown to the end of the regime of King Abdullah of Jordan and his administration.

25. Israel has sown the seeds of destabilization in Egypt. Iran has pushed Jordan and Egypt into showing their cards at the middle eastern poker table. Egypt has been exposed as a complete satrap of the US and Israel, completely subordinate to the needs of the Zionist entity. Every Egyptian, with warm memories of Gamal Abdel Nasser would probably be weeping at this point.

26. The only thing that keeps the Egyptian population from toppling their government at this time is the Egyptian military. It will unfortunately remain so until the right catalyst arrives to light the spark of revolution ...

27. However, the net result of all these increasing strains within Egypt is to increase sympathies for the Palestinian people, opening up smuggling lines into Gaza.

28. The perception of Western Moral and Civilizational Superiority has been utterly destroyed. The fact that Western Colonialism is alive and well and that Western Civilization is morally bankrupt has been been exposed to the Global South.

29. This moral bankruptcy has been manifested firstly at the level of it's governments and secondly at the level of it's apathetic populations who support the actions of their governments.

30. The result of this is that the Global South is now able to weaponize diplomacy in every forum with Western powers.

31. In the past, every diplomatic discourse between Western powers and non-Western countries used to begin with brow-beating and embarrassment of those countries around their human rights records.

32. Today, every diplomatic discourse between the West and a global south nation begins with a refutation of Western moral high ground. The recent BRICS conference in Kazan underscores this.

33. The neutralization of weaponize Western sanctions: Israel's actions, triggering Iran's, Yemen's and Hezbollah's actions have revealed that western sanctions against The Middle Eastern Resistance have been useless in stopping the technological and military advance of these powers.

34. Moreover, these sanctions have served to push the middle east into the BRICS trade sphere and away from the G7 trading sphere. It is a self-strangulation of the Western economies carried out by the USA on behalf of it's garrison in Occupied Palestine.

35. Ultimately, these sanctions backfired spectacularly, resulting effectively in the global sanction and blockade of Western shipping through the Red Sea and "tit-for tat" oil tanker confiscations in the Persian Gulf.

36. The compromise of the integrity of Western Supply Chains. The compromise of Western mobile device supply chains, which could only have happened through the collaboration of multiple Western states, including the collusion of parties in Taiwan (outside of the control of Beijing) and Hong Kong (controlled loosely by Beijing) has resulted in complete loss of trust in Western telecommunications equipment and alerted Beijing and Moscow to potential compromise in their own supply chains.

37. While the implications of this are still unfolding the future success of western exports and Israel's inclusion in the supply chains are now in question.

38. China is now, even more than before, not only the "supplier of volume" but also the "supplier of trust".

39. Due to Israel’s actions, the US has been exposed to its own people and the UN community (UNSC, UNGA) as completely under control of the Zionist Lobby. It is no longer a government of the people by the people (if ever it was!). In the past, it was suspected that Israel had some influence over American foreign and home policy, but now it is certain that Israel controls American foreign policy in totality. The question of which part of the dog is the tail and which the dog has become meaningless - it's all "dog". Moreover, this compromise of the State, the subversion of Western governments to the purposes of the Zionist lobby, has been repeated on other Western governments like Germany, France, Britain.

40. We have just witnessed the destruction of 'Pax' Americana and its replacement by 'Pax' Judaica. Thus, the prediction of Sheikh Imran Hossein has been fulfilled.

41. Well done on the genocide front! Israel has progressed quite far in it's genocide of the Gazan Palestinian population within the last 12 months. The depopulation of the Gaza strip is well on it's way by means of sickness, starvation more than missiles and bombs.

42. For this there will be a price to pay in the eyes of history, for the Zionists if Israel have provided the excuse (not justification) for some enterprising tyrant to commit future persecutions and genocides against the Jews - and others.

43. Israeli economy is destroyed along multiple vectors for the foreseeable future. MNCs with offices in Israel have been negatively impacted. Affected business range from individual companies that cannot operate in Israel anymore due to instability and loss of workforce, to larger corporations whose ethical compliance measures require them to decouple from Israel. The impact extends to companies that cannot tolerate the disruption to energy infrastructure and logistics lines.

44. New, persistent threats that cannot be remedied by the West have been created. The Houthi and the Iraqi Hashds being one case in point. There's no end in sight here. These actors are going to be around for years, threatening the viability of Israel as a "peaceful place for the Jews" and turning it into merely another American garrison in the Levant.

45. Degraded Israeli gas and Oil infrastructure in the Mediterranean. Recent strikes have not only destroyed some of Israel's gas platforms in the Med but demonstrated that Iran has the ability to wipe out Israel's energy infrastructure. Israel will now have to recalculate the security of its energy supply. Any customers of Israel's gas and oil production will have to recalculate their energy security equations.

46. Ensured continuity of the Resistance. The further radicalization of Hezbollah by removal of the conservative elder leadership has resulted in the younger, more aggressive, less restrained commanders to take the lead. Moreover, the remaining elder leadership in the Shura council have been painfully reminded that there is no negotiating with the Israelis and the Americans and that the only way out is to fight.

47. The murder of national heroes like Hassan Nasrallah has very likely galvanized the youth of Lebanon.

48. In a similar vein, the next generation of Hamas and Al Qassam fighters, now still children, have been created in the camps of Gaza, the West Bank, Ein Al Hilwe and other Lebanese Palestinian camps and the Palestinian refugee camps in Jordan and Syria.

49. This is the primary reason for the American and Israeli murder campaign against Palestinian children and babies. How the IDF behaves when they encounter armed resistance:

50. A distraction for the USA and the Western Imperium: Ultimately the debacle in Occupied Palestine, engineered and sustained by Benjamin Netanyahu has posed a major drain on American resources.

51. It is a distraction from confronting bigger, more threatening adversaries like China and Russia.

52. The more cognitive energy, financial resources and political capital the USA has tied up in the Middle East conflict, the less it has left to confront serious developments on the Russia and China fronts.

53. The BRI, for example continues apace. Chinese and Russian space and marine developments proceed by leaps and bounds. Chinese chip manufacture has reached the 7 nm scale and 4 nm is in testing. Hypersonic missile development in Russia and China has outpaced American developments by leaps and bounds. China has achieved a 6g Transmission network implementation. China operates the biggest space station human kind has ever deployed.

54. The UN has been exposed as an impotent and in fact detrimental organization: Israel, through it's own behavior at the UN has exposed the entire organization, from the ICC, ICJ, UNSC, UNGA and even organizations like UNRWA as completely impotent for all tasks that do not support the interests of the Western Powers. While this has been obvious since the comprise of the OPCW some years ago, the rot has been exposed at all levels of the UN and repeatedly hammered home by the Israeli representatives at the UN.

55. Nobody can ignore it anymore, nobody other than those benefiting from the grift.

56. It Bleeds: The vulnerability of Israel, it's economy, it's military and it's allies has been exposed by non-state actors who have now demonstrated that they are able to keep this so called regional 'superpower' bleeding for a straight year while being severely under-supplied, outgunned, outnumbered.

57. Should other Arab countries decide at any point that Israel no longer serves their purposes in the Middle East, they've seen the evidence that Israel is not invincible and on the contrary, remarkably vulnerable.

58. Weakening of the Lebanese, Iraqi, Syrian and Yemeni State is a Strengthening of Hezbollah and the Houthi Movement: Israel, in taking the wrecking ball to Lebanese and Yemeni civilian government and sovereignty has created an environment in which the state will never be able to hold a monopoly on violence. The entire extent of Lebanon, Iraq, Syria and Yemen will therefore remain free and open for Hezbollah and Ansarallah to operate without government restraint. Even if this "freedom" is the freedom of chaos.

59. It can be terrified into paralysis: The delayed response of Israel to Iran's latest hypersonic attack has been uncharacteristic. It demonstrates that the mere use of violence is sufficient to paralyze not only the Israeli Occupation State Apparatus but also that of the wider Anglo-American Empire, which itself seems scared of retaliating directly against Iran.

60. The World notes this. For perhaps the first time in history, war crimes accusations leading to actual arrest warrants have been issued against Israeli individuals (by the ICJ). Yes, with much reluctance, but it indicates that even the Zionist dominated West is beginning to crack under the stress of it's own contradictions. These contradictions will merely expand further ...

61. The utter failure of the Lebanon Ground invasion and discredit of the IDFs power: It is clear that the IDF's ground invasion of Lebanon is a failure when compared with Israel's previous invasion and occupation of Beirut. In an era where the IDF/IOF should have enhanced military technology and training, the full support of the West, it's performance on the ground has only been a fraction of what it could once demonstrate. Even if the IDF/IOF ever manages to grind its way to Beirut, it will arrive there a bruised and battered remnant of itself. Then, the real war will begin ...

62. The IDF/IOF and the so called 'State' of Israel has been exposed to be a fully dependent and indivisible organ of the American Empire: The complete dependence on massive airlifts of American weapons, THAAD, American Political Intervention in the U.N and other arenas has exposed Israel as nothing without life support infrastructure provided by the Americans. The image of Israel as a viable future state for the Jews has thus been utterly shattered. It cannot exist for now or ever without Uncle Sam behind it. When the Empire Falls. Israel goes with it. Israel's enemies (and allies) will note this and plan accordingly.

How will all these “sensitive initial conditions,” these “achievements,” combine over the next 6 - 12 months to form greater unintended effects? It's anyone's guess, but the picture doesn't look good for Israel regardless of how it looks for the rest of the Levant.

Winning!

Re-posted from Moon of Alabama