America the Vassal
Why there will be no negotiations in Switzerland this weekend.
There is every reason to believe that, from China's point of view, this the first stage of a very long process of reducing the United States to something like a traditional Chinese client state. – David Graeber, Debt, The First Five Thousand Years (2011).
When Vice-Premier He Lifeng meets Commerce Secretary Scott Bessent in Geneva this weekend, he won't be there to negotiate.
He will ask if Bessent understands China’s preconditions for commencing negotiations and, when Bessent claims he does, the meeting will get interesting.
Vice-Premier He will ask how the United States, which has broken more agreements than it has kept, will demonstrate its good faith? Without a good faith demonstration, there will be no negotiations, no Chinese exports and–within six months–no US economy. Mr. He will add that, only when tariff discussions are proceeding satisfactorily will China open discussions on non-tariff exports like rare earth metals–without which America’s auto, technology and defense industries will shut down by Christmas.
Bessent’s America
Though America’s trade hand is so poor that it does not bear discusion, that is not its greatest weakness. Bessent knows that the US economy is in recession, asset values
are collapsing, the country pays $1.3 trillion annual interest on its $36 trillion debt, personal credit card debt is $1.2 trillion, student loans exceed $1.75 trillion and most American families cannot cover a $500 emergency. Compounding Bessent’s worries, China’s dollar reserves are now at pre-WTO levels, and ASEAN+3 has adopted the RMB for trade and finance.
Good faith
He Lifeng will remind Mr. Bessent that, if he wants to resolve the issue through negotiations, his administration must realize the negative impact of their unilateral tariffs, follow WTO rules, negotiate sincerely, work with China and not against it, and sort out problems through consultation on an equal footing. If the US says one thing and does another–or continues employing coercion and blackmail, China will end negotiations. “There’s an old Chinese saying, Secretary Bessent: ‘Listen to their words and watch their deeds’. Before any negotiations between our countries can begin, The United States must demonstrate its sincerity through action, so that the world sees a genuine change of heart. I leave it to you to decide what those actions will be”.
P.S. As a Soros employee, Bessent tried and failed to break the Hong Kong dollar in 1998. What a moment to be alive!
My dear Turnier:
The US has made no secret of it's intent to gain control of China's financial system and use that to dominate China..
The US ran gunboats up Chinese rivers during the century of humiliation... "Sand Pebbles" for instance.
The US routinely subverts Taiwanese return to China..
The US discriminates and jails scientists of Chinese origin, and has an active campaign to seize Chinese investments in the US.
There is no love between China and the US. Your premise has no basis in fact.
The US is busily exhausting it's armaments stockpile razing Gaza, and pounding Ukraine, and poiunding Yemen. Sooner, or later, the US will realize that without minerals and metals from China, it cannot re-arm and the US juggernaut will come to a complete stop.
However, the Chinese are patient. They will be polite. They need not do anything. The US economy will implode of it's own petard.
UNLESS the US makes a deal..
INDY
Of course I have no idea how these people talk behind closed doors. I agree that China is in a much stronger position in this conflict.
Still, China is not interested in a collapse of the US, a subsequent crisis of global trade and possibly escalating wars. Also, the win-lose principle is Western thinking, not Chinese culture if it can be avoided. Your imagined negotation style would mean that Mr. Bessent would lose face. This is not necessary and not helpful. It is sufficient for Chinese representatives to argue, we make our decisions, you make yours, how can we create an environment where both profit? The outcome would be the same, i.e. a complete capitulation of the US position, but it would look better. Trump needs something he can sell as a win. As a great salesman, he should be able to declare a victory even if defeated.