China's Engineering Miracle Is The Most Expensive In World History

At what cost? $167 billion.

Dmitry Skvortsov’s essay, Whom does a Chinese engineering miracle hurt? translated from the Russian, is perfect Sunday morning reading.

China is starting construction of the most expensive project in human history: a series of hydroelectric power plants in Tibet. This project is not only an engineering marvel, but also a crucial element of China’s energy strategy. So why is it facing fierce opposition from other countries?

China has launched the construction of a cascade of hydroelectric power plants in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Tsangpo River in Tibet. The total amount of planned investments will be 1.2 trillion yuan (167 billion US dollars). This is almost five times more than the cost of the previous Chinese mega – project-the Three Gorges hydroelectric power station (254.2 billion yuan). This estimated cost makes the Yarlung Tsangpo Canyon hydroelectric complex the most expensive project in human history.

The Yarlung Tsangpo River originates in the Tibetan Plateau and, after passing through vast heights and sharp drops, forms a canyon that is deeper and longer than the Grand Canyon in the United States. In the construction area, the river makes a giant loop around Mount Namcha Barwa, creating ideal conditions for the construction of a hydroelectric power plant: a sharp drop in elevation, a powerful flow of water, and a naturally narrow canyon.

Hydroelectric power plant builders do not need to use a dam to create a height difference to provide the necessary water pressure. This avoids the need to flood large areas of land, which is inevitable when building large-capacity hydroelectric power plants in flatter areas.

At the same time, the builders will have to overcome many problems. The terrain is extremely difficult, with elevations exceeding 3,000 meters, frequent landslides and mudflows, and tectonic activity requiring the use of earthquake-resistant technologies. Hydrologically, the river is characterized by high seasonal water levels and large fluctuations in water flow.

The projected installed capacity of the plant exceeds 70 GW, which will make it the largest hydroelectric power plant in the world. It surpasses the largest hydroelectric power plant to date (also in China) Three Gorges Dam by more than three times. Its installed capacity is greater than the combined installed capacity of the three largest hydroelectric power plants on earth: Three Gorges Dam (China – 22.5 GW), Baihetan (China – 16 GW), Itaipu (Brazil/Paraguay – 14 GW). This is more than half of the installed capacity of all power plants in countries such as the UK, Italy, or Spain (120–130 GW).

The project will use the latest technologies for tunnel drilling and earthquake-resistant concrete reinforcement. It will also use the latest flow control systems. The project will also include environmental compensation measures. Special attention will be paid to creating a network of reservoirs and cascades that will ensure even generation during seasonal fluctuations.

The scale of the construction project is unprecedented: tens of thousands of workers, hundreds of kilometers of roads and tunnels, and the construction of airfields and logistics centers.

The choice of location for the construction of hydroelectric power plants is not only due to the topography of the area. The Tibetan region remains one of the least electrified areas in China. The remoteness, rugged terrain, and low population density have hindered the development of the power grid. However, the growth of high-altitude cities, infrastructure projects, and tourist destinations requires a reliable power supply.

Since the late 1990s, China has been developing plans for the comprehensive electrification of Tibet. Since 2000, China has initiated the development of 193 hydropower projects in the region. Approximately 60% of these projects are still in the planning or preparation stages. However, the most ambitious project has been selected, located in the Yarlung Tsangpo Gorge. The construction permit was obtained in December 2024, and the official start of construction took place on July 19, 2025.

This hydroelectric power plant should not only provide electricity to Tibet, but also become an important part of the energy transmission system from the west to the east of China, where most of the industrial consumers are located. The installed capacity of the plant will help cover the evening and night peaks when solar generation decreases and wind generation is unstable.

We should not forget about the large-scale deposits of lithium in Tibet. This production is very energy-intensive and impossible without a stable energy supply. The launch of hydroelectric power plants will give a start to the industrial development of Tibet’s mineral and rare-earth reserves.

In China, which plays the role of the “factory of the world,” coal-fired thermal power plants still play a significant role in the electricity sector (1,150 GW, or 34.3% of the total installed capacity of the country’s electricity generation). However, China is also a leader in the development of renewable energy. The installed capacity of solar power plants currently stands at 887 GW (26.5%), while the installed capacity of wind power plants is 520 GW (15.5%).

However, renewable energy sources are unstable. The recent blackouts in Spain and France, caused by sudden changes in grid load, have highlighted the importance of having managed backup capacity. Hydroelectric power plants are one of the best candidates for this role. Unlike solar and wind power, hydroelectric power plants can quickly adjust their generation to adapt to changes in the grid. The Yarlung Tsangpo Hydroelectric Power Plant will serve as a flexible backup capacity as the share of renewable energy increases, reducing the risk of instability.

The announcement of the construction project has sparked expected opposition from China’s geopolitical adversaries. India and Bangladesh have expressed concerns about the project, fearing that the water may be diverted or held back. The Yarlung Tsangpo River becomes the Brahmaputra River as it flows southward into the Indian states of Arunachal Pradesh and Assam, and then into Bangladesh as the Jamuna River. The closure of the river could have significant implications for millions of people living downstream, according to The Guardian.

“China can always use this water as a weapon by blocking it or diverting it elsewhere,” said Niraj Singh Manhas, an analyst at the Jamestown Foundation.

International environmental organizations have also become more active. They express concern about the state of wildlife in the region, as well as the significant tectonic shifts, severe landslides, and extreme geographical conditions in which the dam is expected to be built.

This hydroelectric power plant is especially important for China today, when the United States is preparing to move from a tariff war with China to blocking its access to energy resources. According to the White House, the upcoming economic negotiations with China will include discussions about the need to stop importing Russian and Iranian oil. Beijing is forced to seriously consider the scenarios of forceful blockades of Chinese maritime imports that have been discussed in some English-language media outlets.

In these circumstances, Russian supplies across the land border are not at risk. However, China’s goal is to prioritize energy supply that is independent of maritime oil imports, not only in the north but also in the south of the country.