Little White Fleet?
Red sails in the Sunrise
In Ukraine, Russia enjoys armaments escalation dominance, thanks to its massive weapons industry, which dwarfs America’s and produces 50,000 shells and missiles every day. Ukraine gets 5,000 from the all the armories of the West – and no likelihood of more. Outside Divine intervention, the contest can end only one way. Russia’s capacity to escalate its existing manufacturing dominance means it can do more of anything Ukraine can do.
That’s why military professionals spend so much time on economics and logistics. They’re taught that fleets win battles and economies win wars. But since fleets fight battles, we must look more closely at how things are shaping up in the Pacific.
Fleet escalation dominance
The PLAN enjoys fleet escalation dominance over the US Navy in the West Pacific.
China’s 340 warships are newer and better armed than America's 290. And, thanks to launching five Burke-class destroyers simultaneously this year, the PLAN will have 400 boats in 2025, while the USN hopes for 300 by 2030.
Says US Naval War College Professor – and former Navy Captain – Sam Tangredi, "In naval warfare, the bigger fleet almost always wins. In 28 naval wars, from the Greco-Persian Wars of 500 BC, through Cold War interventions, we found just three where superior technology defeated bigger numbers".
Armaments escalation dominance
China has turned its research lead in chemistry and math into powerful, innovative weapons. Beijing contends with Moscow for the lead in hypersonic missiles while the US has yet to test one. Even conventional Chinese missiles outrange their American counterparts by 50%-100%, and in some cases, the US has no counterpart to their innovative, specialized weapons.
Quality
China's naval technology is superior to America's simply because it’s a generation younger. PLAN boats have much lower mileage, and are more powerfully armed than ours.
We’re Number Three!
If the foregoing is accurate, we’re Number Two in the West Pacific and, if Russia beats Ukraine, we’ll be Number Three – unable to afford, and lacking the productive capacity for war against a Great Power.
The fleet comparison shows that the US literally cannot afford a naval war against China, and the Ukraine disaster shows that the US can no longer afford a land war, though Ukraine is far more strategically important than were Afghanistan or Iraq. Will voters spend $1 trillion a year to boast, “We’re Number Three!”?
Politically and economically, navally and terrestrially, can the US even afford peer warfare, let alone win it?
And if we to go to war, we know who has morale escalation..
I'm embarrassed to say I didn't know what the title referred to, but a quick websearch turned up a Wikipedia article titled "Great White Fleet". So now I get it. In case anyone else is wondering:
> The Great White Fleet was the popular nickname for the group of United States Navy battleships that completed a journey around the globe from December 16, 1907, to February 22, 1909, by order of President Theodore Roosevelt. It consisted of 16 battleships divided into two squadrons, along with various small escorts,[1][2] and earned its moniker for the stark white paint on its hulls.
> The fleet's primary mission was to make friendly courtesy visits to numerous countries while displaying new U.S. naval power to the world; Roosevelt sought to demonstrate growing American military prowess and blue-water naval capabilities. [...]
The neocons still refuse to accept the reality that the US and its allies cannot prevail militarily against anyone and everyone. Perhaps a stinging defeat in Ukraine will finally abuse them of their ghoulish fantasies of omnipotence. Here in Europe, I don't think anyone has the stomach to move to a full-blown war economy. We have become bit-players.
Hmm. This would be an interesting analysis if you considered the US would not confront China alone. That’s be publicly stated. Any Taiwan conflict would ultimately include Japans Maritime Defense (200 by 2030). Australia. The Philippines. Maybe South Korea. Not to mention Taiwan. Maybe some European allies. I’m not sure aside from Russia who might be capable of aiding China in the maritime sphere. Although I’m not a military analyst.