Yalta II: Imbalance of Terror

Trump, Xi and Putin Walk into a Crimean Bar

What is politics? Politics is to reduce the number of enemies and increase the number of friends. Make our side bigger and the enemy’s side smaller. Mao Zedong

For the first time since 1944, the United States is the world’s second-ranked economy and third-ranked military power. Just as in 1944, the world order still rests on the balance of terror except this time it’s two against one and the US military is no match for either of its chosen enemies, which are closer military allies than any NATO nations. Yalta 2 offers a chance to reduce military spending, recalibrate alliances and stabilize economies, as Alex Krainer suggests. With Russia and China at their peak and the U.S. in decline, the trio could forge a pragmatic truce, sideline neoliberal elites and reshape the world accordingly.

It is with this shared knowledge that Presidents Trump, Putin and Xi will meet to decide the new world order (the retreating US seems keen to claim the Americas as its exclusive sphere of interest, and the others willing to concede only the North). Says Art Berman, “Our world is no longer defined by the postwar global order that once enshrined U.S. dominance. Thanks to economic nationalism, resource wars and the collapse of liberal hegemony. The U.S. is no longer a status quo power but a revisionist one—reshaping the global order alongside Russia and China”.

Trump: the domestic political struggle

President Trump has already announced his intention to meet as soon as possible with Presidents Putin and Xi, both of whom he admires. But his domestic agenda is unprecedented in United States history: thin out the ruling elite, change the principles of American domestic and foreign policy, purge the state bureaucracy, destroy the old order, then consolidate the radical transformations.

Before he addresses that challenge each day, he must pay interest of $300 billion on our accumulated debt and borrow $100 billion to keep the economy from stalling. Then he must stabilize and reunite the nation – divided by political, cultural and economic and geopolitical setbacks – while rebuilding an obsolescent military and a hollowed-out manufacturing base in the face of fierce media opposition and changing geopolitical realities. Says Vasily Kashin, “The 47th President’s actions in the international arena must be almost entirely subordinated to the logic of the domestic political struggle”.

Trump has begun reducing America’s overseas commitments and refocusing on the economy, borders and spending, “I want to meet with the presidents of Russia and China and say, let’s cut our military budgets in half.” A grand bargain with Putin and Xi would extricate him from Biden’s Ukraine war and, with America’s arsenal now obsolete, restart nuclear arms talks. But he needs their cooperation more than they need his, says Secretary of State Marco Rubio, “The postwar global order is not just obsolete. It is now a weapon being used against us.”

Putin: Leverage and Triumph

Vladimir Putin arrives at Yalta II commanding the world’s most powerful military, the fourth-largest economy, vast natural resources, 88% domestic support and Xi Jinping’s admiration. Sanctions have accelerated Russian growth and word is that Trump has agreed to withdraw U.S. troops to their 1989 NATO boundaries and leave historic troublemakers like Poland, the Baltics, Finland and the Balkans without a US military presence.

Putin’s goals are straightforward: formalize America’s retreat, secure the return of confiscated Russian assets, renormalize relations and reopen consulates and travel. He will use the summit to lock in gains through his Eurasian Security Structure and ensure Russia’s dominance in its sphere. Cooperation with Trump on nuclear arms aligns with his interests and preserves Russia’s existing edge while easing global tensions.

Xi: Advancing hegemony

Xi’s priorities are clear: he wants China left alone to be itself and to trade peacefully with the world. U.S. withdrawal from Taiwan and recognition of the Taiwan Strait as Chinese waters would be welcome. In exchange, Xi will offer technology joint

ventures with US manufacturers. Xi sees a three-way deal as peaceful recognition of China peerage that frees him to focus on his legacy: the Global Security Initiative, GEIDCO and BRI.

The New World Order

All three leaders recognize that globalized markets and supply chains have blurred geopolitics and domestic policy: the U.S. pursues ‘America First’ to shield its industries, Russia leverages resources and military might, and China doubles down on economic dominance. For Putin, it’s about locking in Russia’s resurgence and security.

For Trump, it’s about averting collapse and reclaiming national power, but his tariffs and energy controls make clear that, as far as the US is concerned, the age of perpetual growth is over. For Xi, it’s a step global Chinese hegemony.

Moral leaders whose own states always act correctly will unfailingly attain primacy. States wishing to exercise humane authority must be the first to respect the norms they advocate, because leaders of high ethical reputation and great administrative ability are attractive to other states and, since the domestic determines the international, winning hearts and minds is more important than winning territory. Being compassionate in great matters and overlooking small ones makes one fit to become lord of the covenants. Rulers win leadership by acting morally and, by presiding over the meetings of other states, earn international acknowledgement of their humane authority. Xunzi