I don't think the USA is looking for a real war, as you said, they can't carry it off. Rather, they'd like a proxy war, or failing that some act extreme enough that they can use their NGO operations to cut off relations between China and a sufficient trade block to both slow China's growth and to retain the neo-colonies to feed off of until Western Vampire (ie: finance/rentier) Capitalist find a new home for their coffins they sleep in at night.
I don't think they want a real war either, but the war profiteers (military industrial complex) no doubt see loading up Taiwan with expensive, useless high-tech weaponry as an excellent opportunity to continue the grift.
That's one layer icing on the cake, but thinnest icing. The amount that Taiwan can buy is tiny, the real money is with Japan, South Korea, but mostly what ever profit that can be made while the exorbitant privileges of the USD are still intact from blowing up US DOD spending. That in turn is small potatoes compared to the rentier extraction from the neo-colonies.
They've been trying and failing for almost 80 years. Financing the KMT failed during the Chinese Civil War. Financing Tibet separatists failed after that. Financing the ETIM failed after that. Now they're trying with Taiwan which is not really working so far.
The hero of the GDP in China are the engineers from either the military and civil sector. Meanwhile US's GDP hero is a cancer patient undergoing a costly divorce.
When the shipyard at Shanghai produced five Type-55 class Missile Cruisers within 3 months, US will matched the GDP produces simply with 50 law firms and hundreds of student debts.
And those US students ridden in debts are not going to semiconductor fabs producing chips or become a productive physics researcher or making engineering breakthrough: they are producing hundreds of essays, thesis, and dissertation on Marvel movies and characters.
Also I forget: the most valuable STEM graduates from US university, the foreign Chinese students, are repatriating back to the Motherland because of the state-sanctioned Sinophobia with the return of Chinese-Exclusion Act. Instead of US having Chinese von Brauns, it is the PRC that receiving waves of Qian Xuesens back to Chinese universities, research institutes. and corporations.
For me probably the clearest and most profound consequence of decades of neoliberal economic policy (aside from investment choices) is the fatal undermining of the very ability for government to function. Even if the US could afford to wage war against China (clearly impossible), it simply no longer has the ability (the human infrastructure) to plan and organize even a far more modest undertaking. This a country that cannot even organize construction of a few kms of high-speed rail.
I'm curious about that "health deficit". How does one determine whether people are not participating in the labor force specifically for health reasons?
I'm not sure that your point about war financing and its consequences holds water. As I understand it acute hyperinflations in the real economy are triggered in countries whose externally held debt is not denominated in their own currency. This is not the case in the US where the only thing that was 'hyperinflated' during the period of ZIRP was the price of financial assets. The real issue for a US war economy is deindustrialization and the rest of the world turning off the commodity taps to the US (see collapse in levels of US strategic petroleum reserves, etc.).
This, of course, is not to say that the US/West will not experience persistent levels of inflation / loss in quality of life as critical commodities become increasingly inaccessible. This inflation will not be addressable through any levels of interest rates.
". This is not the case in the US where the only thing that was 'hyperinflated' during the period of ZIRP was the price of financial assets."
not just fictitious assets- they pointed the money hose also at real estate hence the insane sky high valuations in big cities (like paying 1+ million for a 1970s ranch in seattle)
I don't think the USA is looking for a real war, as you said, they can't carry it off. Rather, they'd like a proxy war, or failing that some act extreme enough that they can use their NGO operations to cut off relations between China and a sufficient trade block to both slow China's growth and to retain the neo-colonies to feed off of until Western Vampire (ie: finance/rentier) Capitalist find a new home for their coffins they sleep in at night.
I don't think they want a real war either, but the war profiteers (military industrial complex) no doubt see loading up Taiwan with expensive, useless high-tech weaponry as an excellent opportunity to continue the grift.
That's one layer icing on the cake, but thinnest icing. The amount that Taiwan can buy is tiny, the real money is with Japan, South Korea, but mostly what ever profit that can be made while the exorbitant privileges of the USD are still intact from blowing up US DOD spending. That in turn is small potatoes compared to the rentier extraction from the neo-colonies.
They've been trying and failing for almost 80 years. Financing the KMT failed during the Chinese Civil War. Financing Tibet separatists failed after that. Financing the ETIM failed after that. Now they're trying with Taiwan which is not really working so far.
ETIM = Turkestan Islamic Party. Had to look that one up! They organized terrorist attacks in Xianjiang. In case anyone else is wondering :)
The hero of the GDP in China are the engineers from either the military and civil sector. Meanwhile US's GDP hero is a cancer patient undergoing a costly divorce.
When the shipyard at Shanghai produced five Type-55 class Missile Cruisers within 3 months, US will matched the GDP produces simply with 50 law firms and hundreds of student debts.
And those US students ridden in debts are not going to semiconductor fabs producing chips or become a productive physics researcher or making engineering breakthrough: they are producing hundreds of essays, thesis, and dissertation on Marvel movies and characters.
Also I forget: the most valuable STEM graduates from US university, the foreign Chinese students, are repatriating back to the Motherland because of the state-sanctioned Sinophobia with the return of Chinese-Exclusion Act. Instead of US having Chinese von Brauns, it is the PRC that receiving waves of Qian Xuesens back to Chinese universities, research institutes. and corporations.
For me probably the clearest and most profound consequence of decades of neoliberal economic policy (aside from investment choices) is the fatal undermining of the very ability for government to function. Even if the US could afford to wage war against China (clearly impossible), it simply no longer has the ability (the human infrastructure) to plan and organize even a far more modest undertaking. This a country that cannot even organize construction of a few kms of high-speed rail.
I'm curious about that "health deficit". How does one determine whether people are not participating in the labor force specifically for health reasons?
Maybe its based on the number of people on long term disability.
I'm not sure that your point about war financing and its consequences holds water. As I understand it acute hyperinflations in the real economy are triggered in countries whose externally held debt is not denominated in their own currency. This is not the case in the US where the only thing that was 'hyperinflated' during the period of ZIRP was the price of financial assets. The real issue for a US war economy is deindustrialization and the rest of the world turning off the commodity taps to the US (see collapse in levels of US strategic petroleum reserves, etc.).
This, of course, is not to say that the US/West will not experience persistent levels of inflation / loss in quality of life as critical commodities become increasingly inaccessible. This inflation will not be addressable through any levels of interest rates.
Good point. I overstated, or at least oversimplified the matter.
I've been following/ studying international and macro finance for years and realize how complex it is.
According to Jerome Powell, the world's leading expert on that subject is Elvira Nabiullina, Governor of Russia's central bank!
". This is not the case in the US where the only thing that was 'hyperinflated' during the period of ZIRP was the price of financial assets."
not just fictitious assets- they pointed the money hose also at real estate hence the insane sky high valuations in big cities (like paying 1+ million for a 1970s ranch in seattle)
True, I suppose the FIRE (non-productive) sector would be the best description of where the money has gone since 2008.