Despair or Extinction?
More than any other time in history, mankind faces a crossroads. One path leads to despair and utter hopelessness. The other, to total extinction. Let us pray we have the wisdom to choose correctly. Woody Allen.
With only bad choices left, Washington has chosen total extinction. In a national version of suicide by cop, the US is rushing towards a war with China it cannot possibly win.
From an historical perspective, this is normal, even predictable. Rich, powerful people, especially those whose wealth and power are unearned, sincerely believe that God wants things this way and they will fight to the last employee and farmhand rather than surrender a tax break.
Spain’s Philip IV squandered billions maintaining his country’s prestige in the Netherlands and lost the empire.
Japanese politicians, often scions of great warrior clans, went to war rather than accept the vassalage that American embargoes entailed after the Imperial Japanese General Staff correctly predicted the course, duration and outcome of the Pacific War.
Will proud American politicians go to war rather than accept Chinese equality?
Can we avoid war?
Events like these are shaping the battlefield, winning without fighting:
China’s Iran-Saudi coup dented White House self-confidence, writers need time to weave a new narrative, of thinner thread, delaying Armageddon by weeks or months.
500 Chinese billionaire Party members hobnob with the Rothschilds, Windsors, Krupps and Wallenbergs, endow their charities, research centers, universities and hospitals, attract Old Europe towards prosperous, non-interfering China and away from impecunious, meddlesome America.
Russia’s victory in Ukraine soon after America’s loss in Afghanistan means a further loss of face and confidence. The US must provide hundreds of billions of dollars for Ukraine’s postwar support and spend more replenishing equipment and supplies, delaying Armageddon 2 years.
Taipei and China Coast Guard announce joint patrols, forcing White House speechwriters to rework the “defend Taiwan” meme.
The possibility of dying in a battle distant in time and space has romantic appeal. The certainty of being fried alive in minutes has none. The 46-minute interval between pressing a button and seeing the first nuclear flash is insufficient to even board a chopper.
At the BRI’s 10th birthday party in Beijing this summer, 151 heads of state will announce the new reserve/settlement currency. In it, the dollar will be fairly weighted, as will commodities like gold and corn that anchor it to the physical world. It will erode the dollar’s privilege slowly and organically.
The US took six months to prepare for the Iraq war while in full control of the land, sky and seas. China completely controls the land, sky and seas 1000 miles from its borders – and deep space.
China’s missile defense system beats America’s by the same margin that China’s health defense system beats America’s: 100:1.
Though fleets win battles, economies win wars. China’s productive (wartime) economy is three times bigger than America’s and growing three times faster.
America the humble?
Rome declined for a thousand years, Spain took a century, the British Empire was gone in forty. America has two years to adjust to its real status or initiate a nuclear war.
A foretaste of America’s forthcoming humiliation came when Nicholas Burns, US Ambassador to China, told Beijing expats that China must accept America’s leadership. Questioned about this, the Foreign Ministry spokeswoman quipped, “Being powerful is like being a lady. If you have to tell people you are, you aren't”.
Russia embraced reality, abandoned its empire and emerged stronger, smarter and more influential than ever. So there’s that.
Quoting British PM, Margaret Thatcher.
The neocon-infested US establishment may think war with China the least bad choice, and the wholly corrupt miltary-industrial complex may be licking their chops, but I daresay the professional military will know such a war would be a doomed proposition. Also, while it may not manifest itself in current policy, anti-interventionism runs deep the American psyche. Given so many other mounting problems, I for one cannot see vast swathes of the populace being goaded into embracing such a disastrous pursuit. Maybe some well orchestrated demonstrations of the range and power of China's unstoppable hypersonic missiles may sharpen peoples' minds in the US. No aircraft carriers, no war against China, I would have thought. Really hope I'm not being too optimistic or too rational here.
It isn't only US hegemony, but the imperialist historical era that is ending. Counting on the capacity for rational decision making in the control towers of the imperial core would probably be a mistake... Only the real time progress of various trajectories as listed in this post will determine the limits of imperialist irrationality - if there are any.